supertuesday updated

Everything changes March 1

Eric Bradner Daniella Diaz
By Eric Bradner, Daniella Diaz and Tal Yellin, CNN
7 minute read
Updated 4:15 PM EST, Tue March 1, 2016
supertuesday updated

Story highlights

Super Tuesday and the March primaries have the potential to decide who may the nominee from each party

But how much weight do these states really carry?

CNN  — 

Super Tuesday and the March primaries have the potential to decide who becomes the nominee from each party.

But how much weight do these states really carry? What could it really mean for the presidential candidates on both aisles, and their future path to the White House? Do candidates like former neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Ohio Gov. John Kasich stand a chance in rising above top Republican candidates Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and front-runner real estate mogul Donald Trump?

And could Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders exceed expectations and take more states than Hillary Clinton?

Here’s a look at what to watch in each state and what it could mean for the candidates of each party:

Alabama - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 50

Democratic delegates at stake: 53 plus 7 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Donald Trump will try to turn his stadiums full of supporters into a big win in this white, conservative, Evangelical state. If he succeeds, it’d be a big blow to Ted Cruz.

What to watch for the Democrats: African Americans make up more than half of the electorate for Democrats here. That makes South Carolina a useful test of what to expect.

Fun fact: Once part of the solid Democratic South, Alabama has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by 13 points (56 to 43 percent).

A young supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheers at a pep rally in Mobile, Alabama, on August 21, 2015. Trump brought 30,000 supporters -- according to the City of Mobile -- from deep red Alabama to a pep rally in a football stadium, the latest sign that the Republican front-runner has broad, nationwide strength.
A young supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheers at a pep rally in Mobile, Alabama, on August 21, 2015. Trump brought 30,000 supporters -- according to the City of Mobile -- from deep red Alabama to a pep rally in a football stadium, the latest sign that the Republican front-runner has broad, nationwide strength.
Melissa Golden for CNN
Trump's 757 plane circles the venue as he arrives. Trump flew by the stadium in his private jet shortly before 6 p.m., doing a loop around the arena before landing. The fly-by was announced over the stadium's loudspeaker to cheers.
Trump's 757 plane circles the venue as he arrives. Trump flew by the stadium in his private jet shortly before 6 p.m., doing a loop around the arena before landing. The fly-by was announced over the stadium's loudspeaker to cheers.
Melissa Golden for CNN
People queue in line to wait for the doors to open. The event was previously planned to be held at the nearby Civic Center but was moved to the 43,000-seat Ladd-Peebles Stadium, a venue normally home to high school football games, to accommodate the crowd. The city of Mobile confirmed late Friday that 30,000 people attended.
People queue in line to wait for the doors to open. The event was previously planned to be held at the nearby Civic Center but was moved to the 43,000-seat Ladd-Peebles Stadium, a venue normally home to high school football games, to accommodate the crowd. The city of Mobile confirmed late Friday that 30,000 people attended.
Melissa Golden for CNN
The venue was changed from a 4,000-person venue to the football stadium, and attendees gathered as early as 6 a.m. local time.
The venue was changed from a 4,000-person venue to the football stadium, and attendees gathered as early as 6 a.m. local time.
Melissa Golden for CNN
A Trump supporter wears a hairpiece similar to Trump's signature style.
A Trump supporter wears a hairpiece similar to Trump's signature style.
Melissa Golden for CNN
Those in the crowd also heard the new Republican front-runner train his eyes once again on the old one, needling Jeb Bush as having low energy and saying he would do the bidding of special interests.
Those in the crowd also heard the new Republican front-runner train his eyes once again on the old one, needling Jeb Bush as having low energy and saying he would do the bidding of special interests.
Melissa Golden for CNN
Trump, clad in a navy blue jacket and his own cherry-red "Make America Great Again" red baseball cap, won the admiration of hometown hero US Sen. Jeff Sessions. The Alabama Republican did not endorse Trump, but came onstage to endorse Trump's immigration positions while wearing his own off-white, Trump-branded hat.
Trump, clad in a navy blue jacket and his own cherry-red "Make America Great Again" red baseball cap, won the admiration of hometown hero US Sen. Jeff Sessions. The Alabama Republican did not endorse Trump, but came onstage to endorse Trump's immigration positions while wearing his own off-white, Trump-branded hat.
Melissa Golden for CNN
Trump, whose victory in national and early-state polls is no longer a surprise, has in recent weeks taken steps to quickly professionalize his political operation.
Trump, whose victory in national and early-state polls is no longer a surprise, has in recent weeks taken steps to quickly professionalize his political operation.
Melissa Golden for CNN
"Here's a simple question: Who would you rather have negotiating with China, Japan, Mexico, any of them? Trump or Bush?" he asked, as the raucous crowd chanted his name back to him. "Ah, what a group."
"Here's a simple question: Who would you rather have negotiating with China, Japan, Mexico, any of them? Trump or Bush?" he asked, as the raucous crowd chanted his name back to him. "Ah, what a group."
Melissa Golden for CNN
A pro-Jeb Bush plane flies by the stadium with banner "Trump 4 higher taxes. Jeb 4 Prez." Bush's official campaign said it emailed supporters in Alabama pointing out Trump's previous liberal positions on abortion, gun rights and tax issues.
A pro-Jeb Bush plane flies by the stadium with banner "Trump 4 higher taxes. Jeb 4 Prez." Bush's official campaign said it emailed supporters in Alabama pointing out Trump's previous liberal positions on abortion, gun rights and tax issues.
Melissa Golden for CNN
At times appearing more prepared than usual -- referencing what seemed to be notes on his podium and relaying new statistics about illegal immigration to his crowd -- a joyful Trump offered to sign copies of his book, waved his arms to encourage applause at some of his one-liners and made an effort to his Southern crowd by calling the Bible his favorite book and lamenting the decline of the Alabama steel industry. "I'd like to have the election tomorrow," he said at one point. "I don't want to wait."
At times appearing more prepared than usual -- referencing what seemed to be notes on his podium and relaying new statistics about illegal immigration to his crowd -- a joyful Trump offered to sign copies of his book, waved his arms to encourage applause at some of his one-liners and made an effort to his Southern crowd by calling the Bible his favorite book and lamenting the decline of the Alabama steel industry. "I'd like to have the election tomorrow," he said at one point. "I don't want to wait."
Melissa Golden for CNN
Some attendees traveled from as far away as California to attend. "It was one of the greatest events Mobile ever put on aside from Mardi Gras," said Colby Cooper, Mayor Sandy Stimpson's chief of staff.
Some attendees traveled from as far away as California to attend. "It was one of the greatest events Mobile ever put on aside from Mardi Gras," said Colby Cooper, Mayor Sandy Stimpson's chief of staff.
Melissa Golden for CNN
30,000 rally for Trump in Alabama

American Samoa

Republican delegates at stake: None

Democratic delegates at stake: 6 plus 5 superdelegates

What to watch for the Democrats: Hillary Clinton won this territory over Barack Obama in 2008. But don’t expect to see any candidates campaigning on the island.

Fun fact: Almost 93% of the population identifies as Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander.

Alaska - Polls close at 12 a.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 28

Democratic delegates at stake: None

What to watch for the Republicans: This fiercely libertarian state will come down to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Potentially helping Trump: The endorsement of former Gov. Sarah Palin.

Fun fact: Alaska is a safe Republican state. It has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since gaining statehood in 1959.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks on as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks at Hansen Agriculture Student Learning Center at Iowa State University on January 19, 2016 in Ames, IA.
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Has Sarah Palin backed a winner in Trump?
02:15 - Source: CNN

Arkansas - Polls close at 8:30 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 40

Democratic delegates at stake: 32 plus 5 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Home-state hero Mike Huckabee has already exited the race. Ted Cruz will try to use the state’s socially conservative bent to notch a win.

What to watch for the Democrats: It’s not often that a state’s former first lady is on the ballot there as a presidential candidate. Hillary Clinton is likely to trounce Bernie Sanders – just like she did Barack Obama by 43 points in 2008.

Fun fact: It is the smallest state in the South.

A 1992 photo shows then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, left, and his wife Hillary, right, embracing.
A 1992 photo shows then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, left, and his wife Hillary, right, embracing.
AFP/Getty Images

Colorado - Caucus at 9 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 0; 37 delegates at stake later in the year

Democratic delegates at stake: 66 plus 12 superdelegates

What to watch for Republicans: Nothing. Colorado Republicans canceled their presidential preference vote in a rebellion against Republican National Committee rules that would have bound delegates to specific candidates according to vote results.

What to watch for the Democrats: Perhaps the most fascinating Super Tuesday state, Bernie Sanders has heavily targeted it as a place to prove he can win Latinos and compete in the West. That’s crucial, since the race moves that direction in late March.

Fun fact: Recreational marijuana use was legalized in 2012.

Presidential candidates Donald Trump speaks while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson look on during the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate at University of Colorados Coors Events Center October 28, 2015 in Boulder, Colorado.
Presidential candidates Donald Trump speaks while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson look on during the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate at University of Colorados Coors Events Center October 28, 2015 in Boulder, Colorado.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Georgia - Polls close at 7 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 76

Democratic delegates at stake: 102 plus 15 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Marco Rubio hopes moderates in Atlanta’s suburbs might keep him close. But Newt Gingrich’s home territory could mirror South Carolina’s results.

What to watch for the Democrats: Hillary Clinton’s advantage with African Americans could help her rack up a huge delegate edge here. But Bernie Sanders has campaigned in Atlanta, with events featuring hometown rapper Killer Mike.

Fun fact: Georgia was founded by James Oglethorpe on February 12, 1733, making it the 13th of the 13 original colonies.

Rapper Killer Mike, left, listens as Bernie Sanders speaks during a roundtable meeting with local activist and community members December 23, 2015, in Chicago.
Rapper Killer Mike, left, listens as Bernie Sanders speaks during a roundtable meeting with local activist and community members December 23, 2015, in Chicago.
Joshua Lott/Getty

Massachusetts - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 42

Democratic delegates at stake: 91 plus 25 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Mitt Romney-land offers Marco Rubio a chance at a victory. He’s the only Catholic in the GOP field in this largely Catholic state.

What to watch for the Democrats: An important Bernie Sanders target, Massachusetts should give an edge to the more liberal candidate. If he loses here, it’s a sign of a brutal night.

Fun fact: Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary, 56% to 41%, over Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio are pictured on the campaign trail in 2012.
Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio are pictured on the campaign trail in 2012.
Getty Images

Minnesota - Caucus at 8 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 38

Democratic delegates at stake: 77 plus 16 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Northern states tend to feature more liberal Republican electorates. That makes this a prime test of whether Marco Rubio can top Donald Trump across the map.

What to watch for the Democrats: A caucus state with a largely white population makes Minnesota exactly the kind of state Bernie Sanders is targeting. This could also test the value of endorsements, since Hillary Clinton has the backing of all the state’s powerful Democrats.

Fun fact: The state has one recreational boat for every six people, more than any other state.

American Indian Movement co-founder, Clyde Bellecourt, left, presses Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders on Native American issues at a forum on race and economic opportunity on February 12 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
American Indian Movement co-founder, Clyde Bellecourt, left, presses Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders on Native American issues at a forum on race and economic opportunity on February 12 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Oklahoma - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 43

Democratic delegates at stake: 38 plus 4 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: This bright-red, socially conservative state will be a battle between Ted Cruz – the Texas neighbor – and Donald Trump.

What to watch for the Democrats: Oklahoma presents a prime test of whether Hillary Clinton’s strength with white voters from 2008 can keep pace with Bernie Sanders’ edge in 2016.

Fun fact: In the last three presidential elections, the Republican nominee (George W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney) each won all 77 Oklahoma counties.

Car decals are for sale at a booth during the 2015 Southern Republican Leadership Conference May 21, 2015 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Car decals are for sale at a booth during the 2015 Southern Republican Leadership Conference May 21, 2015 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

Tennessee - Polls close at 8 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 58

Democratic delegates at stake: 67 plus 8 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Another test of whether Ted Cruz can surpass Donald Trump in a socially conservative state that’s key to his ballyhooed Southern strategy.

What to watch for the Democrats: The African American population here is smaller than other Southern states – giving Bernie Sanders more of an opening. But Hillary Clinton won by 14 points in 2008 and looks unlikely to lose this time.

Fun fact: If Al Gore had won his home state in 2000, he would have become the president.

bush v gore What stopped Gore from going on stage_00001422.jpg
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2000: What stopped Gore from going on stage
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Texas - Polls close at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 155

Democratic delegates at stake: 222 plus 29 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: Ted Cruz makes his stand in his home state. If he can’t win Texas, it’s hard to imagine him beating Donald Trump anywhere.

What to watch for the Democrats: The heavy Latino population will test whether Bernie Sanders can repeat his entrance poll advantage among that set of voters. If not, a huge chunk of delegates could go to Hillary Clinton in Super Tuesday’s biggest prize.

Fun fact: Latinos make up 20% of the state’s electorate.

Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen Ted Cruz (R-TX) speaks during his caucus night gathering at the Bill and Lillie Heinrich YMCA on February 23, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Can Ted Cruz win his home state of Texas?
02:25 - Source: CNN

Vermont - Polls close at 7 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 16

Democratic delegates at stake: 16 plus 10 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: A moderate state similar to New Hampshire, this will be a useful test of just how much John Kasich can hurt Marco Rubio by gobbling up the moderates he’ll need to go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump.

What to watch for the Democrats: This is Bernie Sanders’ home state. It’s as close to a lock as you’ll find in presidential politics.

Fun fact: Cows outnumbered humans in Vermont until 1963, according to the Vermont Historical Society.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) waves to supporters after officially announcing his candidacy for the U.S. presidency during an event at Waterfront Park May 26, 2015 in Burlington, Vermont.
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New England's divide: Vermont vs. New Hampshire politics
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Virginia - Polls close at 7 p.m. ET

Republican delegates at stake: 49

Democratic delegates at stake: 95 plus 14 superdelegates

What to watch for the Republicans: The establishment types rule the north, and social conservatives dominate the south and the west. That makes Virginia a key Super Tuesday battleground for the GOP, with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump all competing hard for it. It also had a former governor, Jim Gilmore, who was in the race, but never caught on.

What to watch for the Democrats: Gov. Terry McAuliffe is a long-time ally of the Clintons, and Robby Mook, her campaign manager, also ran his successful campaign here. That, plus the state’s proximity to Washington’s establishment Democrats, give Hillary Clinton an advantage.

Fun fact: African Americans made up 30% of the 2008 Democratic primary electorate.

state of republican 2016 race intv jim gilmore qmb_00043727.jpg
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Gilmore: GOP will rally around whomever is the nominee
05:11 - Source: CNN

Wyoming

Republican delegates at stake: 29 in a later convention

Democratic delegates at stake: None

What to watch for the Republicans: Wyoming Republicans will be gathering to caucus, but they aren’t assigning delegates to specific candidates based on Tuesday’s contest.The home of the Cheney family is a socially conservative state. It might have been a Rand Paul target, but now looks like a fight between Ted Cruz’s organizing edge and Donald Trump’s strength out west.

Fun fact: Wyoming women were the first in the nation to be able to vote, serve on juries and hold public office.

Then-Vice President Dick Cheney with his family: From left to right, granddaughters Katie Perry, 10, Grace Perry, 5, Dick Cheney, Lynne Cheney, granddaughter Elizabeth Perry, 7, daughter Liz Cheney Perry, and son-in-law Phillip Perry August 18, 2004 near Moose, Wyoming.
Then-Vice President Dick Cheney with his family: From left to right, granddaughters Katie Perry, 10, Grace Perry, 5, Dick Cheney, Lynne Cheney, granddaughter Elizabeth Perry, 7, daughter Liz Cheney Perry, and son-in-law Phillip Perry August 18, 2004 near Moose, Wyoming.
David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images

Democrats abroad

Democratic delegates at stake: 29

What to watch for the Democrats: Democrats are the only party to give U.S. citizens living abroad an opportunity to vote. This is a rolling primary, March 1-8.

Fun fact: An estimated 8.7 million Americans overseas are eligible to vote.

Correction: The poll closing times in this post have been updated.