Theresa May to bring Brexit vote back after pledge to resign

The Commons' vote on Friday will not quite be a third "meaningful vote" on Theresa May's Brexit deal, as required by the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. UK politics nerds will know very well that Section 13 requires both the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration to be approved in order for the treaty to be ratified.

Rather, it will be on the Withdrawal Agreement only -- and not the Political Declaration,

What that means: The government is trying to square a circle. It needed to fulfil the Speaker's demand that another vote on the Brexit deal needed to be substantially different from before. As the leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, told MPs, it also needs to get approval for the Withdrawal Agreement qualify for the extension to the Brexit process that was granted last week by the EU.

If the Withdrawal Agreement passes tomorrow, the Brexit date will automatically be pushed back to May 22 -- but MPs will still have time to debate the future relationship with the EU and approve that relationship by voting on the Political Declaration at a later time.

A third vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal has been allowed by the Speaker, John Bercow, and has been tabled for Friday.

The vote will be on the Withdrawal Agreement, which sets the divorce terms, and not the associated Political Declaration, which deals with the future relationship between the UK and the European Union. That split satisfies the Speaker's ruling that the vote had to be substantively different from the two previous occasions on which the House of Commons voted on it.

In case the indicative votes process wasn't confusing enough already, the Speaker, John Bercow, has just told MPs that the votes were counted incorrectly for three of the eight motions.

Kenneth Clarke's motion for a customs union, which was the closest to achieving a majority, was in fact even closer than thought – it lost by 271 votes to 265, not 272 to 264, as announced last night. That's a loss of six votes, not eight.

Theresa May's Brexit deal could be denied a third vote in the House of Commons even if more lawmakers now support it, the Speaker John Bercow appears to have indicated.

Conservative MP Anne Main said in the House that around 30 of her colleagues had changed their mind on the bill and would not vote for it. She also noted that the two options she supported in Wednesday's indicative votes are unlikely to progress to Monday's next round.

"I reserve the right to wish to have the Meaningful Vote Three come back," she said.

But Bercow's response referred to his earlier ruling that the bill must be substantively different - and he hinted that more MPs supporting it doesn't fulfill that criteria.

"The whole point of having a rule is because it is judged to be of value, and the fact that somebody suddenly thinks it isn’t convenient doesn’t mean that it should simply be disregarded," he added.

If you're confused about what exactly will be debated in Parliament tomorrow, you're not alone.

Lawmakers are similarly in the dark, and many have taken to Twitter to express their frustration with the the vague agenda for Friday.

Labour MP Kevin Brennan was told by the Speaker, John Bercow, that the government may not confirm the details of Friday's sitting until much later on Thursday. "It could be a very late hour before we have any concept of what we are debating tomorrow," he says.

MPs often return to their constituencies after business in the Commons has wrapped up on Thursday, and some have had to cancel their surgeries, or meetings with constituents, due to Friday's sitting.

Labour MP Angela Eagle, meanwhile, has christened tomorrow's business "Meaningless Vote 1."

Speculation continues to float through Westminster that the government is planning to hold separate votes on its Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, despite previously insisting that the two can only be voted on together.

"At end of Business Statement we have learnt of ‘shenanigating’ by Government and (it) looks like they trying to separate Withdrawal Agreement from Political Declaration," Labour's Karin Smyth wrote.

Such a move would likely be designed to ensure the Speaker, John Bercow, allows the bill to go to a vote for the third time.

The city of Hull may be a gateway to Europe, with cargo routes to the Netherlands and Belgium. But that didn’t stop it voting to leave the EU by 68%.

Reflecting on the results of last night’s Parliamentary ballot of Brexit options, most people we meet here feel frustrated. And while the motion for a second referendum on any final Brexit deal may have been most popular in Westminster, it’s not popular here. 

Jamie Galbraith, a local bricklayer, voted to Leave. He speaks to me alongside his colleagues: one didn’t vote in the referendum and is undecided; the other voted to Remain.

“What I think we agree on is politicians messed this up and they aren’t doing what the people asked them to do," he tells CNN. “The people already voted. I think we should stick by that, otherwise it undermines the whole process. We could do this forever, just keep voting and voting.”

Even those who bucked the trend in Hull and voted Remain generally seem to think any kind of second referendum wouldn't work. Sue Rollinson, a 62 year old retired nurse, says she can’t see what good would come of another vote.

“It will be a complete waste of time, if people can’t make up their minds now, what would be the point?” she tells CNN while pushing her grandson in a pram. “If they had asked for a second referendum a year ago, maybe, but now I think it is too late and people are sick and tired of talking and listening, there’s been no action.”

As for the Prime Minister’s decision to step aside if she gets her Brexit deal through, it’s hard to find many locals who think that’s a good idea.

Laborer Norman Morrison is one of few to say that stronger leadership is needed - but adds that he can’t think of any alternatives.

“I just can’t see any,” he says. “Definitely not that Boris Johnson. I couldn’t vote for him, he’s a lunatic.”

The general consensus in Hull is that May should stick it out and see the job through - and that means leaving the EU, one way or another.

Theresa May's rumored effort to split the third Brexit vote into two parts - the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration - is a "desperate" final attempt to pass her deal, Keir Starmer, Labour's Shadow Brexit Secretary, has said.

"The Prime Minister and the EU know these documents cannot be separated. Yet now she may ask the Commons to pretend they can," Starmer told the British Chamber of Commerce conference in London on Thursday. "Labour will not support this latest desperate attempt by the PM.

"To now split the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration would leave us with the blindest of blindfold Brexits," he added.

Starmer also said May's offer to resign could lead to Brexit negotiations being hijacked by a new prime minister.

"My biggest fear is that, unless Parliament takes a stand now, the outcome of the negotiations is going to be determined by the outcome of next Tory leadership contest," he said.

"It could be a Boris Johnson Brexit. A Jacob Rees-Mogg Brexit. Or a Michael Gove Brexit. That should give anyone considering supporting May's deal on Friday serious concern."

John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of the Commons, confirmed in the House that he met with two government members earlier on Thursday to discuss a Brexit motion.

Bercow is central to the discussion around when and how a third vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal would be held, after he ruled earlier in March that any attempt must be substantively different to the two previous, and heavily-defeated, iterations of the bill.

The meeting suggests Number 10 is attempting to find a way to hold a vote on the deal that satisfies Bercow's condition.

"I met a couple of very senior colleagues this morning who were exploring possibilities and consulting me, and a conversation was had," Bercow said.

"I haven't since heard from either of those senior or right honorable members," he added, though he said he may do later on Thursday.

Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesperson of the European Commission, has responded to last night's indicative votes in the House of Commons.

Schinas reiterated that a third Brexit vote is supposed to take place this week to comply with the rules of the EU's extension.

"We recall that the European Council last week in a decision take in agreement with the United Kingdom stated that if the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified by the end of this week, Article 50 will be extended to [the] 12th April and is now for the UK government to inform us about how it sees the next steps," he said.

On Theresa May's offer to resign if her deal is passed, Schinas added: "President Juncker had repeated the occasion to state publicly his support and respect for the Prime Minister for whom he worked with during this long process."