Editor’s Note: Van Jones is CEO of REFORM Alliance and co-founder of #cut50, a bipartisan criminal justice initiative of the Dream Corps. He is also the author of “Beyond the Messy Truth: How We Came Apart, How We Come Together.” In 2009, Jones worked as the Green Jobs Adviser in the Obama White House.
The last 24 hours have been a big wake up call for Democrats.
The Iowa caucus was a debacle. Then Donald Trump produced a very strong, clinical speech that shows exactly what he thinks he needs to do to win.
First, he threw a ton of red meat to his base. From religious liberty and abortion to guns and the military, he effectively mobilized his core supporters.
Second, Trump showed how he intends to handle the race in 2020.
He went hard against undocumented immigrants. For instance, he made a big deal out of crime, when a study by the Marshall Project last year showed that sanctuary cities are actually safer than non-sanctuary cities. Even the conservative, libertarian Cato Institute found that immigrants committed fewer crimes than native-born Americans.
On the flip side, the comments Trump was clearly addressing to African-Americans can be effective – and are a huge warning for Democrats, even if they do not want to hear it.
He mentioned Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), which have struggled for years. He talked about criminal justice reform. He talked about opportunity zones and better employment numbers. He talked about charter schools. Democrats need to wake up. All Trump needs to do is to move the margins to guarantee his reelection.
There is this liberal bubble that believes that 98% of black women and 81% of black men will always vote for the Democrat, as they did for Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to Pew. But what Trump said Tuesday night to black voters was this: look at my record and what I am doing for black people. He is going to narrowcast that message, and it only takes small margins to shatter the Democratic winning coalition.
Democrats are going to have to be absolutely clinical in response – paying close attention to the African-American and Latino vote instead of operating on assumptions, and countering Trump not with fact-checks or outrage but a compelling story of how people of different races can come together to build an America that works for everyone, not just the powerful and well-connected.
If we do not, the strategy Trump unveiled today will lead to his victory in November.