The Covid-19 pandemic seems to be following highways as it spreads, researchers from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania said on Tuesday.
The Policy Lab project team based at CHOP has been tracking cases across 384 US counties with active outbreaks.
What their model is seeing is that, predictably, as places open back up, people aren’t staying home. As more people interact with others, the disease spreads. And cases seem to be moving south to north along major traffic corridors -- highways like I-95 on the East Coast and I-85 in the South, and I-5 and I-10 in the West -- the team said.
“We look at this data every week and noticed the trend along the highways. We don't look at traffic with this model, but we thought it was interesting,” Policy Lab spokesperson Lauren Walens said.
What seems to slow the spread of the disease is the same that it has been from the beginning: staying home, wearing a mask, washing hands. “Personal vigilance,” Walens said, is key.
“It's impossible for us to know if everyone is wearing a mask or not,” Walens added. “There are all these variables. Temperature is one of them, but there's little difference between Atlanta and Jacksonville's weather, so weather can't explain the difference in the two cities. We think it’s in part mobility.”
The group’s next model update will be released on Wednesday.