A category five heath crisis

A version of this story appeared in the April 5 edition of CNN’s Coronavirus: Fact vs. Fiction newsletter. Sign up here to receive the need-to-know headlines every weekday.

CNN  — 

The US has hit “category five hurricane status” with the pandemic as the Midwest approaches a fourth wave of cases, Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy director, said Sunday.

“Let me say that, at this time, we really are in a category five hurricane status with regard to the rest of the world,” Osterholm said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

“At this point, we will see in the next two weeks the highest number of cases reported globally since the beginning of the pandemic. In terms of the United States, we’re just at the beginning of this surge, we haven’t even really begun to see it yet.”

Osterholm pointed to Michigan, which has recorded an alarming rise in infection in recent days. The state reported 8,413 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, its highest tally since December 7, according to health officials. Michigan also has the second highest number of cases of the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant, behind Florida.

Osterholm said surges of cases usually cycle between US regions, starting in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. These surges then subside, and move to the southern sunbelt states, which then subside in turn, with the case spike returning to the original regions.

Not all experts are convinced – Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said on CBS’s Face the Nation Sunday that he didn’t think a true fourth wave was likely.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a true fourth wave,” Gottlieb said. “I think we’ve probably delayed the point at which we can get this behind us for the summer, but we haven’t forestalled that opportunity.”

Osterholm’s dire warning comes amid good news for the US vaccine rollout – the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a record number of shots over the weekend with more than 4 million doses administered in 24 hours.

YOU ASKED. WE ANSWERED.

Q. How long will vaccines protect people?

A: Initial evidence suggests immunity from vaccination against coronavirus provides long-lasting protection, but vaccine makers have begun making and testing versions of their shots that protect against worrying variants.

Doctors are worried that the coronavirus may end up being like influenza, which requires a new vaccine every year both because the circulating strains mutate fast and because immunity from the vaccine wears off quickly.

The latest report from Pfizer shows people in South Africa who got its coronavirus vaccine after B.1.351 became the dominant circulating virus were still very strongly protected from infection – something that backs up laboratory experiments that have shown the vaccine causes such a strong and broad immune response that it provides a cushion against any effects of mutant viruses. But vaccine makers are not taking any chances.

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WHAT’S IMPORTANT TODAY

Another US Covid-19 surge may look different, experts say, particularly for younger people. Here’s how

The US vaccine rollout is intensifying, with the country now averaging more than 3 million administered doses daily according to the CDC.

But only about 18.5% of Americans are fully vaccinated and the new B.1.1.7 variant could spell trouble for younger groups that haven’t yet been inoculated.

While Americans over 65 are now relatively well protected, multiple states have reported rising cases and hospitalizations in younger age groups. This population now risks catching a variant that is more contagious and may cause more severe disease according to experts.

“We have to think about the B.1.1.7 variant as almost a brand-new virus,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

“It’s acting differently from anything we’ve seen before, in terms of transmissibility, in terms of affecting young people, so we have to take this very seriously.”

India reports more than 100,000 cases in 24 hours as second wave hits

India has plunged into its second wave – and this time, with new variants, fatigue setting in among the population, and several massive religious gatherings taking place, it threatens to be worse than the first one.

The country recorded 103,558 new cases on Monday – the highest single-day figure since the beginning of the pandemic.

The previous record high had been in September last yearIndia had improved since then, recording around 9,000 cases a day in mid-February – which was hailed as a sign that the country had controlled its outbreak.

Now, less than two months later, daily cases have jumped more than tenfold and authorities rushed to reimpose restrictions over the weekend in hard-hit states.

Experts warn that cases may balloon in the coming weeks, due to a number of large gatherings and congregations in several regions.

UK proposes pilots for Covid-19 passports as way out of lockdown

Britain plans to pilot Covid-19 passports at snooker tournaments, comedy clubs and soccer matches over the coming weeks in a scheme already dividing politicians and the public.

The government hopes the “Covid-status certification” scheme will allow those who are vaccinated, have had a recent negative test or a positive test within six months to return to theaters, football matches, cinemas and other events.

But Boris Johnson’s government faces stiff opposition over the policy. More than 70 lawmakers last week joined civil liberties groups in launching a campaign railing against the proposed use of documents allowing people access certain domestic venues.

The issue isn’t limited to the UK. The American Civil Liberties Union said last week that plans to roll out a standardized vaccine passport must account for social inequalities and privacy rights, and that anything less was a “nonstarter.”

But several organizations and tech companies have already started developing smartphone apps and other digital systems to store and verify vaccination information.

ON OUR RADAR

  • Polling and real-world data show that Americans are starting to come out of their pandemic shells, as states loosen restrictions. Many are doing so regardless of vaccination.
  • Argentinian President Alberto Fernández has tested positive for Covid-19 – a little over two months after being vaccinated with the Russian-made Sputnik V.
  • Pope Francis called for vaccines to be shared with the world’s poorest countries during a scaled back mass at the Vatican on Easter Sunday.
  • The US has moved to stop risk of contamination at a Baltimore vaccine manufacturer where 15 million potential doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine were spoiled last month, telling drugmaker AstraZeneca to shift production from the plant.
  • It’s no surprise the pandemic has led to a surge of hobbies. What’s interesting, some experts say, is that the surge mirrors what happened during the Great Depression.

TODAY’S TOP TIPS

If you’re struggling to get a vaccine appointment in the US, a good place to check is the CDC’s Covid-19 vaccine finder.

Pharmacies that are vaccinating have their own scheduling websites, too. Availability quickly changes and be sure to cancel your appointment if you can’t keep it, so someone else will be able to get that slot.

TODAY’S PODCAST

“I have never seen a more divisive or politicized pandemic than the way it’s playing out here in the United States,” – Dr. Howard Markel, director of the Center Centre for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan.

As more schools across the country reopen, CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta talks to Dr. Markel about what we can learn from when schools opened during the influenza pandemic of 1918. Listen now.