Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson will win the GOP nomination in Wisconsin’s Senate primary, CNN projects. He will face Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes, in November.
First elected in 2010, Johnson ran for reelection in 2016 by pledging that his second term would be his last. While the Republican senator waffled on running for reelection for months, he eventually decided to seek a third term, arguing that his initial pledge assumed Democrats would not control the White House, House and Senate.
It was never a doubt that Johnson would be the Republican nominee and the incumbent has been focused on Barnes, the projected Democratic nominee in the race, for weeks. Johnson has already been calling Barnes a “radical left candidate,” saying he was a “progressive puppet out to fundamentally change America.
Johnson has a lot going for him — namely voters’ dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden and Democrats in Washington — but a recent Marquette Law School poll found that 46% of Wisconsin voters viewed him unfavorably, compared to 37% who had a favorable view. It’s an issue that Johnson and outside groups have been attempting to address, running a series of ads touting his role in fighting inflation and his role in a 2018 law that helped terminally ill patients access experimental drug treatments.
But many experts believe the race between Johnson and Barnes will be a primarily negative affair, with Wisconsin a historically polarized state that has been a political hotbed since the fights over union bargaining rights in 2011 and 2012. Johnson’s top advisers have said they are prepared for that and plan to define Barnes as someone who is out of step with most Wisconsin voters.
"(Barnes) is out of touch with where the majority of the state is," said adviser Ben Voelkel, citing some of the more liberal positions Barnes has backed throughout his career. "Mandela Barnes talks a lot about his dad working the third shift work. ... Mandela Barnes hasn't done any of that. He has been a career political activist."
The race between Johnson and Barnes will be one of the most closely watched contests of 2022. President Donald Trump narrowly won Wisconsin in 2016, but the state swung back to Democrats and President Joe Biden in 2020.